Ken Clarke warns: double-dip recession "still possible"
Former Chancellor says that early spending cuts may tip economy back into recession.
By George Eaton Published 26 June 2010
Ken Clarke has become the first cabinet minister to warn that Britain could fall back into recession as a result of the dramatic spending cuts and tax rises announced in George Osborne's emergency Budget.
In an appearance on BBC Radio 4's Any Questions, the Justice Secretary said that a double-dip recession was "quite possible still" and that no one could be sure of the effect Osborne's policies would have on growth.
"If we didn't do it (deficit reduction), my judgement is that interest rates would soar and if you want to stop recovery, if you want to make double-dip recession certain, and it's quite possible still, let British interest rates go up," he said.
He added: "My hope and my forecast is that we won't, but no one's sure."
As Chancellor during the last major period of fiscal retrenchment, Clarke's words carry weight in the Conservative Party and in the City of London and will increase market uncertainty.
His comments came as divisions between the US and Europe over economic policy burst into the open at the G20 summit in Toronto.
President Obama has warned of the dangers of a double-dip recession if all countries start to cut spending at once but leading European economies, especially Germany, are accelerating the pace of deficit reduction.
David Cameron insisted that he was not at odds with Obama over the timing and pace of spending cuts.
"The risk to us - which the Americans and others recognise - is not taking action," Cameron said. "I think that the G8 will conclude that those countries with the worst problems need to accelerate their actions, which is what we have done."
In an open letter to G20 leaders last week, Obama warned that cutting spending too quickly could "result in renewed economic hardship and recession".
As a result of the measures announced by Osborne in Tuesday's Budget, the Office for Budget Responsibility downgraded its growth forecast for this year from 1.3 per cent to 1.2 per cent.
But economists including David Blanchflower, a former member of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee, and Robert Skidelsky, the author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes, have warned that withdrawing fiscal stimulus, at a time when the private sector remains depressed, could tip the economy back into recession.
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12 comments
This is ridiculous - he was clearly referring to letting interest rates spiral out of control, which was the danger with LABOUR'S approach.
yes, he was considering interest rates not cuts - unfortunately - it would be nice to see KC change sides/
seems to me the corporate financial world is on the point of no return.their idea of manipulating lending to all and sundry who have no way of paying debts have put us all in a perilous predicament.DEPRESSION/DOUBLE DIP/RECESSION call it what you may.READ UP ON HOW ILLUMANTI SYSTEM WORKS,it resembles the pyramid system which always collapses.
Surely you can't take an article's economic subject matter into question when they can't even spell 'economy' properly. 'Econonomy', I'm actually LOL-ing.
What is it about the English language the above posters don't understand?
He is saying both that double-dip is certain if you let interest rates rise and still possible with the budget Osborne has delivered.
I'm LOL-ing at your inability to comprehend your own tongue.
I think Clarke might be thinking what he's been interpreted by McQuade as saying here - but he didn't say it. If he had he would be out of the cabinet a couple of seconds after he opened his mouth. Our Ken isn't that stupid.
apologies to McQuade - I meant "interpreted by Eaton".
This is a terrible article. It's the sort if warpingof the facts more usually found in rags like the Daily Mail than the New Statesman. McQuade is entirely right. Read what Mr Clark actually says..... slowly.
"If we didn't do it (deficit reduction), my judgement is that interest rates would soar and if you want to stop recovery, if you want to make double-dip recession certain, and it's quite possible still, let British interest rates go up,"
why is it that when one argues a different point to the one they what to believe those of the Labour party or left wing get abusive. Of course Ken Clarke was not saying the budget would cause the economy to double dip...he said "If we didn't do it (deficit reduction), my judgement is that interest rates would soar and if you want to stop recovery, if you want to make double-dip recession certain, and it's quite possible still, let British interest rates go up," he said. what part of that sentence McQuade actually says the proposed cuts will cause double dip recession?
take the blinkers off and just think for a few minutes of what was achieved in the last 13 years by Labour and why Ken Clarke said what he said
Tony
26 June 2010 at 17:15
I think you're reading quite a lot between the lines there McQuade.
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Er no, Tony - McQuade isn't reading between the lines, he's reading the actual lines, you illiterate dingbat.
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