Hung parliament still likely, latest polls suggest

Tories down one to 33 per cent as Labour rises three to 28 per cent in new Opinium survey.

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Latest poll (Opinium/Daily Express) Labour 57 seats short of a majority.

Britain remains on course for a hung parliament at the election, according to two new opinion polls which show the Conservatives struggling to establish a secure lead.

A new Opinium survey for the Daily Express puts the Tories down one point to 33 per cent, Labour up three to 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down one to 27 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would produce a hung parliament with Labour 57 seats short of an overall majority.

But in practice, since the Tories are still likely to perform disproportionately well in marginal constituencies, a lead of this size should leave the Conservatives as the largest single party.

Meanwhile, the YouGov/Sun has the Tories up one to 35 per cent, Labour unchanged on 28 per cent and the Lib Dems down one to 28 per cent. On a uniform national swing, the figures would leave David Cameron 49 seats short of a majority.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung Parliament, Conservatives 51 seats short.

Update: A new ComRes survey for the Independent and ITV News has the Tories down one to 37 per cent, Labour up one to 29 per cent and the Lib Dems up one to 26 per cent.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.