Tory lead cut to just one point in new poll

Latest ComRes poll puts Tories down two to 32 per cent, just a point ahead of the Lib Dems.

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Latest poll (ComRes/Independent) Labour 61 seats short of a majority.

22:23 Update: The Tory lead is down to just one point in the latest ComRes poll for the Independent and ITV News. The topline figures are Conservatives 32 per cent (-2), Lib Dem 31 per cent (+2) and Labour 28 per cent (no change). If repeated on a uniform swing at the election, the figures would leave Labour 61 seats short of a majority.

20:08 Update: The YouGov/Sun daily tracker has the Conservatives on 33 per cent (-1), the Lib Dems on 29 per cent (-1) and Labour on 28 per cent (no change).

19:06 Update: A new Opinium poll for the Daily Express has the Conservatives on 34 per cent (+2), the Lib Dems on 28 per cent (-1) and Labour on 25 per cent (-1). On a uniform swing, this result would leave the Tories 43 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung Parliament, Labour 59 seats short.

The Conservatives will struggle to win a majority at the election, according to a new opinion poll which shows their lead remains at just three per cent.

The latest ICM survey for the Guardian put the Tories down two points to 33 per cent, Labour up two to 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down one to 30 per cent. If repeated on a uniform national swing, the latest figures would leave Labour as the single largest party in a hung parliament, 51 seats short of a majority. But in practice, since the Tories are still likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, it is likely that David Cameron's party will emerge with the most seats.

The poll will encourage Nick Clegg, whose party remains on course for a record-breaking performance at the election, but it found that the Lib Dems lag behind the other two main parties on policy. On the economy, the subject of the final leaders' debate this week, the Tories are ahead on 30 per cent, with Labour a point behind on 29 per cent and the Lib Dems on 23 per cent.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.