Conservative lead rises to eight points in new poll

Support for David Cameron's party rises four points to 36 per cent in latest Populus poll.

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1272401152021

Latest poll (Populus/Times) Conservatives 36 seats short of a majority.

The Conservatives are still likely to emerge as the single largest party after the election, according to a new opinion poll which puts support for the party at its highest level since the first leaders' debate.

The latest Populus survey for the Times put the Tories up four points to 36 per cent, the Liberal Democrats down three to 28 per cent and Labour down one to 27 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would leave David Cameron 36 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.

But in practice, since the Tories are still likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, a lead of this size should put the party within touching distance of a majority.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

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Hung Parliament, Labour 59 seats short.

Elsewhere, two other polls put the Tory lead at four points and also show a slight decline in support for the Lib Dems.

The latest daily YouGov survey for the Sun has the Tories unchanged on 33 per cent, with Labour up one to 29 per cent and the Lib Dems down one to 28 per cent. If repeated on a uniform swing, the figures would leave Gordon Brown 44 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament.

Meanwhile, a new ComRes survey for the Independent and ITV News put the Tories up one to 33 per cent, with Labour also up one to 29 per cent and the Lib Dems down two to 29 per cent.