The Conservatives are on course to secure a small majority at the election, according to a new opinion poll which puts the party nine points ahead of Labour.

The latest daily YouGov survey for the Sun put the Tories up two points to 41 per cent, with Labour up one to 32 per cent and the Liberal Democrats down two to 18 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would leave David Cameron five seats short of an overall majority.

But with the Tories likely to perform disproportionately well in the marginals, a lead of this size should be enough to give Cameron a majority.

Meanwhile, a new ComRes survey for the Independent suggested that a hung parliament remained likely at the election. The poll put the Tories down one point to 35 per cent, with Labour down two to 29 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up two to 21 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would leave Labour 46 seat short of a majority.