Lib Dems overtake Labour in new poll

Support for Lib Dems surges eight points to 30 per cent, just three points behind the Tories.

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271454329782

Latest poll (YouGov/Sun) Labour 51 seats short of a majority.

The latest YouGov daily tracker poll has just been released and it shows a dramatic surge in support for the Lib Dems following last night's debate.

The poll puts the Lib Dems up eight points to 30 per cent, with Labour in third place on 28 per cent and the Tories on 33 per cent, their lowest level of support since Brown's honeymoon in September 2007.

Yesterday's YouGov poll put the Tories on 37 per cent and Labour on 31 per cent, so the increase in Lib Dem support has come at the expense of both parties.

The results should be treated with caution but this is clearly a sensational poll for the Lib Dems and a new layer of unpredictability has been added to the election. If the Lib Dems start to be seen as a potential party of government they could make a real electoral breakthrough.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1271454581671

Hung parliament, Conservatives 38 seats short.

But if repeated on a uniform swing, these figures would actually leave Labour as the largest single party in a hung parliament. The vagaries of the first-past-the-post system, mean that Gordon Brown would be 51 seats short of an overall majority.

According to UK Polling Report's swing calculator, Labour would win 275 seats, the Tories 245 and the Lib Dems just 99.

 

Follow the New Statesman team on Facebook.

George Eaton is political editor of the New Statesman.

Getty
Show Hide image

Donald Trump vs Barack Obama: How the inauguration speeches compared

We compared the two presidents on trade, foreign affairs and climate change – so you (really, really) don't have to.

After watching Donald Trump's inaugural address, what better way to get rid of the last few dregs of hope than by comparing what he said with Barack Obama's address from 2009? 

Both thanked the previous President, with Trump calling the Obamas "magnificent", and pledged to reform Washington, but the comparison ended there. 

Here is what each of them said: 

On American jobs

Obama:

The state of our economy calls for action, bold and swift.  And we will act, not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.  We will build the roads and bridges, the electric grids and digital lines that feed our commerce and bind us together.  We'll restore science to its rightful place, and wield technology's wonders to raise health care's quality and lower its cost.  We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories.  And we will transform our schools and colleges and universities to meet the demands of a new age.

Trump:

For many decades we've enriched foreign industry at the expense of American industry, subsidized the armies of other countries while allowing for the very sad depletion of our military.

One by one, the factories shuttered and left our shores with not even a thought about the millions and millions of American workers that were left behind.

Obama had a plan for growth. Trump just blames the rest of the world...

On global warming

Obama:

With old friends and former foes, we'll work tirelessly to lessen the nuclear threat, and roll back the specter of a warming planet.

Trump:

On the Middle East:

Obama:

To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect. To those leaders around the globe who seek to sow conflict, or blame their society's ills on the West, know that your people will judge you on what you can build, not what you destroy. 

Trump:

We will re-enforce old alliances and form new ones and unite the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism, which we will eradicate completely from the face of the earth.

On “greatness”

Obama:

In reaffirming the greatness of our nation we understand that greatness is never a given. It must be earned.

Trump:

America will start winning again, winning like never before.

 

On trade

Obama:

This is the journey we continue today.  We remain the most prosperous, powerful nation on Earth.  Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.  Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week, or last month, or last year.  Our capacity remains undiminished.  

Trump:

We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our product, stealing our companies and destroying our jobs.

Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength. I will fight for you with every breath in my body, and I will never ever let you down.

Stephanie Boland is digital assistant at the New Statesman. She tweets at @stephanieboland