Cameron set to win a small majority, poll shows

Tory lead rises to ten points in new YouGov poll, large enough to give Cameron a majority.

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1270895279022

Latest poll (Sun/YouGov): Conservatives three seats short of a majority

The Conservatives are on course to win a small majority at the election, according to a new opinion poll which shows the party's lead over Labour rising to ten points.

The latest daily YouGov poll for the Sun had the Tories unchanged on 40 per cent, with Labour down one to 30 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up two to 20 per cent.

If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the latest figures would leave David Cameron three seats short of an overall majority. But since the Tories are likely to perfom particularly well in the key marginals, a lead of this size should be enough to give Cameron a small majority.

New Statesman Poll of Polls

New Statesman - Polls Guide_1270895313650

Hung parliament, Conservatives ten seats short.

Meanwhile, a new Harris survey for the Daily Mail, also showed the Conservative lead widening to ten points. The poll had the Tories unchanged on 37 per cent, with Labour down one to 27 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up two to 22 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would leave Cameron 12 seats short of a majority. But again, the party's expected performance in the marginals and the unwind of anti-Tory tactical voting, should give Cameron a small majority.

A second Harris survey, for the free newspaper Metro, showed the Conservatives' nine points ahead of Labour. The poll had the Tories unchanged on 37 per cent, with Labour up one to 28 per cent and the Liberal Democrats up one to 20 per cent. If repeated at the election on a uniform swing, the figures would leave Cameron 19 seats short of a majority.

The New Statesman poll of polls now shows the Tories just ten seats short of a majority.