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Bolivians choose the euro

Hugh O'Shaughnessy

Published 04 March 2008

Hugh O'Shaughnessy reports how poor Bolivians able to save for the first time ignore the dollar in favour of the euro

They may in their majority be needy indigenous people, Aymaras, perhaps, or Quechuas, living here in the High Andes, but they are touched by the winds of financial globalisation.

Even poor Bolivians are not stupid. They know when to get out of the dollar US as it falls in the wake of that country's worldwide difficulties and now it will not buy 1.50 Euros and 20 dollars will hardly buy ten pounds sterling.

For older Bolivians with strong memories of the hyperinflation here when they had to struggle with armfuls of banknotes if they were to buy the smallest thing, it is a strange thing to be confronted with the local currency, the boliviano, rising in value as the dollar skids downwards. For years those who could would make a practice of changing what Bolivian currency they were unfortunate to possess into US currency. Not any more.

These days the latest slip in the dollar is carried on the front page of all the main newspapers and is fuelling the flight from it.

Bolivia's banks have done fabulous business in the two years President Evo Morales has been in office. As Bolivia has earned more and more money from its oil and natural gas which its neighbours, especially Brazil and Argentina, are bursting to buy, a new sense of prosperity is slowly creeping into society.

Since he came in, the profits of the dozen largest banks have tripled. And last year alone they went up by a whopping 83 per cent.

Understandably the bankers are in a happy mood and are not in the business of letting opportunities slip past them. Hoardings all round La Paz tell the world that savers would do well to open accounts in Euros and that the friendly bankers in Banco X or Banco Y would be happy to help them.

With the oil and gas money Morales has set up a scheme to distribute a small amount of money every year to schoolchildren and a similar amount to almost all citizens over 60. This is taking the edge off the keenest feeling of poverty and destitution in Bolivia. So people are beginning to have something to save at last.

Yet it is not the banker's advertisements which tell the whole story. It is at the stalls set out here for the Alasitas fair which tell the debt of the growing Bolivian rejection of the dollar. Alasitas held in the first few weeks of the year in La Paz, Bolivia's commercial capital built in a canyon 12,500 feet below the freezing plain, is the time the citizens beg Ekeko, the stumpy god of plenty, for prosperity during the coming year. It is a time for relaxation before the children go back to school and at the fairground swings and other amusements are set out. There are all manner of toys on sale and the air resounds to the cries of the young.

Little statues of the Andean deity are on sale in many of the stalls. Others have on sale the tiny miniatures of the goods which ordinary Bolivians yearn for - bundles of tiny banknotes; model cars and vans; teeny ovens and fridges, kitchen and garden implements. The Andean people decorate the statues with the miniature replicas in the hope that the god will bring them the real thing later in the year. Alasitas (which means "buy me one" in the Aymara language) bears witness to four millennia of civilisation at 11,000 feet in the Andes.

"This year there are more miniature euro banknotes and fewer tiny dollar bills", says my friend Alfredo, an assistant to one of Bolivia's more influential politicians. "Bolivians don't want Ekeko to bring them dollars any more," The day of the almighty dollar has passed. Even in Bolivia.

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7 comments from readers

antileft
04 March 2008 at 14:35

Im not quite sure that it's "passed" Hugh. It's actually quite likely that theyre buying euros because at the moment the dollar is going down- for now. However, to think that it's permanently going down you'd have to be psychic. Even the Economist magazine predicts itll start going up again in 2009. So, it would be logical for them to start buying dollars again when the dollar starts going up.

But then, youre not very good at predicting the future, are you Hugh? Do you remember this article?:

http://www.newstatesman.com/200711260004

"On Sunday 2 December 16 million Venezuelans vote in a referendum: all the signs are that they will approve constitutional reforms proposed by President Hugo Chávez."

Whoops! That was a bit of a mistake eh? Maybe you should quit seeing everything from a biased left wing anti-American perspective hmm?

JimJameson
05 March 2008 at 02:29

Antileft, I'm hardly a fan of Chavez or leftist claptrap and am a conservative myself, but you are living in fantasy land if you think that the dollar is ever going to regain world currency status. Yes, the US dollar may brake its slide somewhat, but the dollar will never again be king of the roost.

It's not just a matter of the exchange rates today-- the USA is almost bankrupt, the baby boomers are retiring soon, and we're still stuck in two quagmirish wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.

Plus we're about to take on still more responsibilities for aid and military forces in Kosovo, a conflict which we cannot afford to get sucked into, but which we are doing regardless.

Look, I don't like this state of affairs, but it's reality. A lot of my work takes me into SE Asia, Eastern Europe, South America and elsewhere. NOBODY wants dollars anymore, they all want to get their paychecks and store up their savings in Euros. Even if the dollar does go up a bit, we're just too ridden by debt and international obligations for us to ever be very solvent in the near future, so there's no reason for our own citizens or foreign bond holders to invest in the USA like they used to. As in other spheres, the currency world is now multipolar.

Cybertiger
05 March 2008 at 13:04

"... the USA is almost bankrupt ..." says JimJameson ...

Morally, ethically, financially, the US is a busted flush, a civilization (sic) on the skids towards hell and eternal damnation - in my humble view.

rupaloop
05 March 2008 at 16:44

About friggin time... the switch to Euros should have taken place along time ago. Of course it will take a major Arab country to switch its secondary currency before the world really takes note and then America really would have to pay for all the years of over-spending..

ortloffa
05 March 2008 at 18:58

The US still has a trade deficit because of high oil prices and high imports to China, but 2007 set records for exports. Last year, exports totaled $1.62 trillion, a new all-time high and an increase of 12.7 percent from 2006. The dollar is not lost.

antileft
06 March 2008 at 04:02

Lefties. No idea how the economy works. It's never that simple- and no one can predict with any certainty what will happen. Ortoffa is the only one who grasps the complexity of the situation. What's more, the euro zone has even more weaknesses than america does. Heres from the economist intelligence unit:

http://www.economist.com/countries/USA/profile.cfm?folder=Pr...

They predict that the cost in dollars for a euro will be:

1.46 in 2008, 1.33 in 2009, 1.28 in 2010, 1.26 in 2011, and 1.25 in 2012. So it's hardly "over", is it? It's just gone down for a while because of current weeknesses.

atorrelio
22 March 2008 at 02:10

Dear Mr. O'Shaughnessy, please get real ! Your "Alasitas" story is good only for kids. You should take a serious investigation on what is really going on in Bolivia . It's not only the oil and natural gas (which its neighbors, are bursting to buy) what is creating a new sense of prosperity in Bolivia.

In the two years President Evo Morales has been in office, coca growers and cocaine dealers have done fabulous business, increasing the economy and duplicating the amount of dollar currency running in the country. In this process, Mr. Chavez (Venezuela) and its "petrodollars checks" is another major source of "income" for certain special groups in the country.

For you information, right now, Bolivia is going through a hard inflationary process thanks to Evo Morales and the way he's handling the country. Poor Bolivians are being fooled by little bonus like "Juancito Pinto" and "Bono dignidad", but what Bolivians really want and need is EDUCATION, JOBS, INDUSTRY AND HONESTY.... something that Mr. Morales' government is lacking of.

Sincerely, a Bolivian Citizen

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