World Affairs
Somalia's ragtag Islamists are here to stay
Published 11 December 2006
Disturbing news from Somalia and Ethiopia, embroiled in the latest African war
The next African war has already begun, though you may not have heard of it, as the television cameras have yet to arrive. By the time they do begin to take pictures of the hungry and displaced, it will be too late to avoid another man-made disaster in the most impoverished corner of the world.
The countries involved in this war are Somalia, where I come from, and Ethiopia, where many of my relatives now live. Last spring, after 14 years as the quintessential failed state, Somalia gave rise to a grass-roots Islamist movement that enjoys genuine support, much as the Taliban did when they came to power in Afghan istan during the mid-1990s. Suddenly, to the astonishment of people who had feared to cross from one side of Mogadishu to the other, a semblance of order returned to the capital.
This honeymoon between the people and a deeply conservative Islamist movement would have come to a natural end, but now it looks certain to be prolonged because of the response of neighbouring Ethiopia and its US ally. Aghast at the seizure of power by the Union of Islamic Courts, Washington called on Addis Ababa to act quickly and decisively against the UIC militia. Ethiopia first made threats, and then intervened directly, sending forces over the border last month and shelling a strategic town.
Washington and Addis Ababa described their enemy as a ragtag bunch of no-hopers who could be crushed easily. The Ethiopian forces, the ar gument went, would be welcomed as liberators. It was a calculation every bit as flawed as Israel's reading of Hezbollah's strengths before last summer's invasion of Lebanon.
As so often happens, this war will achieve exactly what it set out to avoid: in this case, entrenching an Islamist government by providing it with even more popular support and legitimacy. Most Somalis will come to see the UIC as a bulwark against foreign invaders.
The US had not uttered the word Somalia for almost a decade, save as a rhetorical warning of the dangers of failed states. Yet, in the past week, American diplomats in New York have been urging the UN Security Council to end the international arms embargo on Somalia so that Washington's allies among the country's warlords and the powerless interim government can be equip ped to fight beside Ethiopian troops against their own countrymen.
The great irony is that many of the leaders of the UIC are not anti-American at all. Several of them have lived and worked in the United States. Far from wanting to export ideology, they are focused on their domestic agenda. One of the main policies is a decree that properties seized by the warlords must be returned to their rightful owners. This has encouraged thousands of exiles to return to Mogadishu. But, with the military intervention by Ethiopia (which has a large and restive Muslim population ripe for political and ideological proselytising), the UIC's reluctance to meddle will undoubtedly change.
What does Ethiopia - a country of 75 million people that suffers chronic food shortages and one of the highest levels of HIV - gain from this? Nothing. But, like other leaders in his position, Prime Minister Zenawi may find a foray abroad will help to silence criticisms about undemocratic elections and political persecution.
Looking around a world shaped by the Bush administration's "war on terror", one wonders why Washington persists with failing policies. It is a question that the historian Barbara Tuchman considered in her book The March of Folly (1984). In it, she asked what compels governments to continue with calamitous misadventures such as Vietnam, Algeria and the First World War. It's a book worth rereading today.
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33 comments from readers
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Sulieman
07 December 2006 at 10:57 Excellent piece Raggeh.
The US after it got badly bruised by the failure of its policy of financing the widely hated and loathed criminal Warlords, they are once again making a great mistake by trying to prop-up an already failed powerless government which enjoys not an iota of support from the Somali public.
Ethiopia will come and try (by the blessing of its sponsors), but surely no foreigner will find refugee where the people do not welcome them. We see many examples of such all over the world today.
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Maye
08 December 2006 at 10:53 A very real and objective analysis of a Somali who understands the dynamics of his people and the political arena of today's world that is ruled by George Bush.
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08 December 2006 at 12:08 Realistic analysis without pompus emotions or alarmist rhetoric.
Poor Meles seems intellegent but lost the ground in the middest of power taste. Complete shift from the ideal of people's struggle against the people's interest.
Can Bush change coarse from the lesson in Iraq or prefer another disaster in the horn?
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Gebre-Yohannes
08 December 2006 at 17:26 Maybe, Omaar would support the uncondional withdrawal of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops from Somalia. And towards that end be willing to participate in a meeting to stop the war and to let the Somalies people decide their own destiny without foreign interferance.
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08 December 2006 at 17:58 rageh Omaar is well informed man but i am afraid he is missing one of the most important point in the Islamist movement. They are interested in imposing strict Shira law which already saw the banning of movies and smoking. Islamists are powerful--no one is stopping them..if the current somali goverment is not supported and the embargo lifted...somalia will be under the control of taliban like people. I dont want to live in that kind of world. Omaar lives far away in the laxury of camera and paper talk!! We are here seeing what these islamists are doing to us.
Easy to critize Bush and ethiopia...and its good to remember whatever war that takes place is not been Ethiopia and Somalia---its Islamists who want to rule the country with iron fist Saudi like rule and Somalis who want to live in a secular country. We still want to watch movies!! I want Omaar to tell me what the agenda of the Islamist is?
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Sultana
08 December 2006 at 19:21 Had the world media been evenhanded and not made total eclipse on what took place in Ethiopia post the 2005 elections perhaps the current scenario would be different. With Bush’s and Blair’s staunch support despite his inhuman actions towards his own subjects, the despotic Ethiopian leader assumes that he has God given right to decide on the affairs of neighboring countries. The Somalis are brave, egalitarian uncomplicated people and in no time would have kept what is good for them and pushed out what is not if no inference is done by outside elements.
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Bashir Khalif
08 December 2006 at 20:56 The United States with troops from dozens of other countries went to Somalia in 1993. President George Bush Sr. at that time said they were only going to ensure safe delivery of food aid but less than 4 months later the US/UN were in the business of Nation building. Several billion dollars and a couple of years later the US/UN forces left Somalia without a government and Mogadishu was no safer than when they first got there. The Islamic Courts in less than 5 months pacified the whole of Mogadishu at zero cost to the International community. They have also successfully banned Qat which is consider to be a drug in the US (Somalis importing it in the US have been jailed). As a Somali I will be grateful to those who have liberated us from warlords and tribal politics for the rest of my life for making us believe it is possible once again to have Mogadishu of the old.
I will not refer to the warlords in Baidoa as a government because they do not govern period. They are a collection of warlords with titles who did not administer anything for the 2 years they have been around except printing Somali currency and lining their pockets.
There will be a Somali Study Group in August 2008 as a cover during an election year for the Republican party in the United States so that they will be able to say we are working on a way out of the mess they are now creating in Somalia. Just like in Iraq by that time there will be no good options for the US.
Bashir Khalif
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SIDG
08 December 2006 at 21:11 S. Ali.
I agree with Mr. Hussein, Mr. Omar only covered half of the story, but did not mention practical difficulties residence of Mugdisho in counter everyday. Yesterday Islamic Courts said no world soccer, no smoking, no TV except Al-Jazeera of course, no movies, no music band, no sing to song, no chewing Khat, may be no chewing western gum is next who knows. But reality is when Islamic clerk declared few days back in the town of Bulo-Burde Central regions of Somalia ; any Somali who does not pray five times a day as required by Allah, will be beheaded, they crossed the line for being human being to not being at all. There you go Mr. Omar, the Islamic courts are acting up to be the Pharaoh's of Egypt. Invasion by world community is inevitable, intervention from neighbouring countries is needed, so the few million remaining Somalis will be saved, once for all.
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Mohamed
08 December 2006 at 21:30 Rageh Omaar knows what he is talking about better than most of us here as he was proven to be an objective journalist by a cross section of people across the world. The weak somali government holed up in Baidaba for the last two years would have folded a long time ago had it not been the support of Ethiopia, backed of course by uncle Sam, whose main objective is to see Somalia divided forever. Ethiopia has succeeded in turning one faction of Somalis against the other for more than sixtheen years until now. With the emergence of the powerful Islamic courts, who has the support of almost all Somalis by bringing peace into the areas under their control, Melez Zenawi, whose home problems are mounting, knows that his dominance of Somali politics are about to come to a grinding halt. It is sad that the UN, who has failed Somalia on many counts over the years, is now indirectly supporting Ethiopia when it should have been neutral in this regional conflict. People cannot be defeated on their ground as history has shown in Iraq and in Vietnam. This haples so-called Somali government in Baidaba and its Ethiopian allies will fail.
Mohamed Yabarag
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mike
08 December 2006 at 23:28 UIC brought peace and stabiliy in Somalia, the West should recognise and give support to UIC.
If we don't support them now, we will be making the same mistakes as we did in Iraq / Afganistan.
We should not support the interim government and Ethiopias agenda..
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qurbaawi
09 December 2006 at 00:25 Rageh Omaar hits the nail on the head. The Somali civil war has destroyed the whole nation and shattered the spirit of its inhabitants. Starting a new war is like adding fuel to the fire. Somalis had enough and for the sake of world peace and humanity, the US government should think wisely, seek peaceful resolution and stop Ethiopian adventurism to destroy what is left of Somalia.
Farah Mohamed
Washington, DC
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takhal
09 December 2006 at 01:13 Because of the UIC's known ties with other terrorist organizations, notably Al-qaeda, their defeat is inevitible. we know that Al-itixad or UIC what ever you want to cll them, were badly defeated in the early 1990s. Then it was the same alliance between Abdullahi Yusuf and Ethiopia who drove Al-itixad from Bosaaso and Gedo region.
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Darwish
09 December 2006 at 04:34 IN THIS WORLD WE LIVE IN, ISLAMIC GOV,OR PARTY IS FORBIDEN ACCORDING TO WESTERNWORLD BECAUSE WE "SOMALIAN" SUFFERED FOR 16 YEARS NOW SUDDNELY THEY ARE FOCASING US.
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09 December 2006 at 06:00 Rageh Omaar, as always a wonderful writer, and honest patriot.
Beautiful Article Rageh, May you be always blessed with spelling out the truth.
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Razakhajiali
09 December 2006 at 09:18 Am deeply worried about Somalia, as British Somali I plea to Tony Blair to intervene this Ethiopian meddling in Somalia’s Affairs, Somalia's Islamist are not threat to our security as some of their leaders lived in US, They are aware the Talibans, they are not going to harbor terrorist, Somalis are homogenous folk, they based tribal and clan, and in term of geography, Somalia is very different to Afghanistan, there is no hiding place, I am not denying the hardliners in it but if we start oppressing them then they may react and the hardliner could over take.
Remember Ogaden Region is given away by the British so at least the British Government need to intervene and force Ethiopians to withdraw from Somalia.
History will repeat itself once again if war happens in Somalia, remember 16 century war in which Portugal came to aid Ethiopia yet got defeated, and remember Somalis fought all the way to outside Adis Ababa in 1977-78 till the Russians help to Ethiopians, if war happens inside Somalia, Somalis will rise and the war will spread to Kenya, inside Ethiopia, Djibouti as Somalis are inter-connected by tribal and cousins and brothers will seek their revenge, its not east as seems, or saying crushed the Islamist, remember the Islamist are member of individual, one will not forgive the killer of his brother, cousin or nephew, we are all inter-connected.
Once again I plea to British Government to act before its too late, there is great risk of regional war effecting 400 Million or braze to new wave of refuges in UK and your own political prize will be paid
Razak Haji Ali
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fellow man
09 December 2006 at 14:40 if somalians are wise enough they will now that ethiopia is thier forth front enamy ... and is not here to solve any prolem we have .... if somalia is wise enough they would know U.S and it's ally isnt here for good.. would see what they have done in iraq. and lebanon months ago ..
if somalians are wise enough they would know man made systems arent the reall deal .. but ellostions to west thier time , ... if somalians are wise enough they would realise who they are , they would realise that they are one race that couldnt find a peace becouse of traibism , they would know that they are one race yet thier past governments didnt have thier solutions.. they would know when they say we are muslims that they dont need man made rules rather be maindfull and have thier sharia applied...
as for the islamic union court.... be keen and islamic ....
when i say islamic i say it becouse islam is all about freedom... and as the verse says to our prophet " you are to adivce not to force" so be wise and islamic .. hussien ysuf ....
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Osman
09 December 2006 at 15:55 Mr. Omaar
The TNG government has the right to defend itself against the rise of truly barbaric extremist ideology. It's indeed the interest of the TNG to seek the Ethiopian support in toppling the Islamist. The truth of the matter is, as much as I dislike the Ethiopian mingling the affairs of our nation(s), I also fear the threat posed by the Islamist towards our culture and way of life. We are not ready nor will we accept their theory of Islamic Sharia. To simply state that the Islamist have a popular support in the grater Somalia is just not true.
Though I may disagree with this writings, I admire you Sir.
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jiminy
10 December 2006 at 14:31 What's the deal with everyone posting the same message twice?
The flavour of both Rageh Omar's article and pretty much every comment below is rather anti-Ethiopian.
No-one has mentioned that many of the Somali Islamists want to create a Caliphate which includes Somalia, a large chunk of Ethiopia and part of Kenya as well.
Add this point to the Ethiopians' fear that the Somalis may -- inadvertantly or otherwise -- encourage Muslims in Ethiopia to rebel, and you havef two perfectly good reasons for Ethiopia to interfere.
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swatantra nandanwar
10 December 2006 at 18:40 Rageh is an excellent commentator. What the people are crying out for is security and stability; and if the Islamists are goint to bring it about then that is who the people will go for. The objection to the Islamists is that they have very little idea of Human Rights and the advancement of women in society. We can only bring pressure on them to embrace liberties by exerting economic pressures on them, and this may sound harsh, but Aid Budgets have to be cut and Humanitatarian assisance in times of famine very deliberatly withheld unless guarantees are given by the Islamists to move towards a more democratic form of government. Aid and the supply of Arms is the only leverage we have on them to change.
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DEQ
11 December 2006 at 02:24 Words, phrases and sentence, only make difference when they are at point. Omaar, you've beautifully described the situation in Somalia without any exageration.
The fact is, that for the past 15yrs Somalia was ignored and abandoned by World as whole. For my generation, the 80's babies, we've been homeless all our live. Forced to live in sudden world, adopt to new weather, not to mention all the discrimination that we deal with. Whether you were in Somalia or not, Somali's suffered all over. For the first time, a group of our people decided to make a difference, and was a joyous news in our community. But where there is good, expect an evil. Those same cowards, hypocrates and bustard that ignore and abandoned us to begin with, are the one showing concern now. Why is that?....Are you not watching the Iraq movie thats currently unfolding.
Secondly, I was surprised that there will be any Somali who would object the UIC. After all, Sharia Laws is what governs us as whole, before you were introduced to the Western Propaganda, we were all raised on the same principle. Now, if you are saying that we should adopt another culture, and look at prostitution, drugs and alcohol as an ok thing, then thumbs down to that. I suggest that you go ahead and convert to those principles.....because Sharia Law was not invented by man. And if you realy think western life style is ok, and Islamic is not, then simply conver to that...dont ask why the rest of us or ok with. Because in honesty, you know why majority of Somali's support the UIC. And you know why we dont support the blood-thirsty WARLORDS labeled as a Government by Some Dictator's who can't respond to their own peoples need. So, for all you hyporcrates Somalian's, before you sell your identity to please the wrong man, back track you roots.
And with that said.....Congratulations Omaar for reporting the truth
Deq Abdi
MN,USA
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Keinaan
11 December 2006 at 17:13 Rage Omaar Well eloquent as we have seen him over the years and I am not questioning his honesty. It is true that the UIC drove the warlords from Mogadishu but what they demonstrated so far looks like copy cat Taliban style rule. Somalis are liberal Muslims historically and don’t want to be ruled like that. Secondly some of it is leaders are the same tribal warlords who now wears Islamic shirt to cover their real aim
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Keinaan
11 December 2006 at 17:16 Rage Omaar Well eloquent as we have seen him over the years and I am not questioning his honesty. It is true that the UIC drove the warlords from Mogadishu but what they demonstrated so far looks like copy cat Taliban style rule. Somalis are liberal Muslims historically and don’t want to be ruled like that. Secondly some of it is leaders are the same tribal warlords who now wears Islamic shirt to cover their real aim
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Mr A Ali
12 December 2006 at 15:01 good and clear analysis by mr Rageh. On the subject of imposing Sharia Law, I think if most people in Somalia were asked if they wanted sharia law the anwser wouldve overwhelmingly be YES. People should be allowed to determine the course of their own future. I mean that's what more or less happened for the past 16 years in Somalia when they where killing each other, THEY WERE ALLOWED TO THAT JUST THAT AND KILL EACH OTHER. why should governments be concerned that theyve stopped doing that and decided to unite behind the islamic revolutionaries of the UIC. the only reason the UIC is making headlines in the west has primaraly to do with the fact that its an islamist movement
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Mr A Ali
12 December 2006 at 15:21 Good analysis by Mr Rageh on the subject of Somalia. Something miracalous has happened in Somalia; Law and order. It suprises me to see the people that have bought this about are being riduculed rather then being praised. I believe that if most people in Somalia where asked if they wanted this change bought about by the UIC and to be governed by sharia law the overwhelming anwser would be yes. And for that, people should be allowed to determine the course of their own futures, that is exactly whats being happening for the past 16 years in somalia, when Somalis where slaugetering each other, THEY WERE ALLOWED TO DO JUST THAT. Now that theyve united (overwelmigly) behind an islamist movement as their leaders why cant theyre wishes be respected, AS IN THE PAST 16YEARS. I think the anwser lies in the fact the movement is an ISLAMIST one and not because the west doesnt want some sort of LAW and ORDER in Somalia. However the west has no right to impose anything on Somalis against their wishes, althought in todays world MIGHT IS RIGHT, just look at IRAQ.
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Tamiru Geda
12 December 2006 at 17:06 I'm one of Rage's admirers. Actually I knew Ragge when he came to Ethiopia to cover some reports for BBC. I also believe that Ethiopians and Somalians are two sides of a coin.
Coming to your article I have some reservation that you failed to mentioned about UNI's ambition , to establish the Greater Somalia that includes large part of Eastern Ethiopia.Why you didn't try to say few words about the intervention of Eritrea not adjacent with Somalia but get involves in Somalian internal affair, l?
Don't you think that Ethiopia has a legitimate right to defend its sovereign?
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15 December 2006 at 14:12 The UIC may be a ragtag army, but as the saying goes; it's our ragtag army and not Tigray stooges. No amount of Tigray occupying force will control, let alone pacify Somalia. If the US with all its military might and almost 400 billion dollars later cannot do that in Iraq, can famine starving totalitarian Ethiopia do a better job? Nope. The UIC, if anything, they are Somalians unlike Zenawi, and Somalia is their country, not his.
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Zuleyman
15 December 2006 at 19:40 Ragge Omar For President.
Somalia would have been a better place if 5 people like Ragge Omar are running the Somalian Affairs.
Young mind like Ragge's will only solve our great Problems. Until those minds emerges we will be where we are today. Keep Up the good work Ragge. Somalia and somalis loves you. By the way, i've watched your Program "Returning the homeland" at your witness program on AlJazira/Eng. And the city you were visiting, is the city where my father was born.
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Jamal
18 December 2006 at 21:21 Omaar has undoubtedly did his analysis and made the point clearly and understandable. However, what many of us don’t realise yet is the national interest of the country whereby a large number of people assume that Ethiopia will eventually invade Somalia and restore peace and order. Why did Ethiopia label UIC a terrorist after they have done what many warlords failed to do? The fact the matter is, we will not be free until we put our trust in Allah and the ones that are elected by us and not the ones elected by others. Are these people not watching the unprecedented events in Iraq and Afghanistan? Surely they are, but their hearts is a disease. It is time to stand up for our national interest and not the interest of few who are not elected by us. Finally, if a war is to start, the future of what is known as the greater Somalia will be lost. We should all measure our thinking against events unfolding. Omar you are great and we should all be proud of you.
Adam
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Nasir
24 December 2006 at 20:28 Hands up for you Rageh what an elequent piece of honest and realistic journalism, a truly genuine journalist and a gentelmen. But the comment I'd like to add here is that isn't it ironic how those who restore peace and order can be labelled for their strong beliefs, (Islamist) which they have every right to uphold, yet those who seem to have lost the plot and the only thing they are governing is none other than their own circle of hopeless powermongers can be given a free pass to invite foreign invaders (Ethiopia) whose ultimate agenda is to inflict more chaos in Somalia and divide Somalia even further.
I don't truly believe that the ordinary Ethiopian people would want war with Somalia because we all know about the past and this diversion war of Meles Zenawi is to divert attention from his own failure and corrupt government. More significantly the passing of the recent UN resolution to lift the arm embargo once again shows that the disgraced United Nations only discusses and passes resolutions that favor the United States and support their agenda of world more of wars and instability.
For those Somalians caught up with this twisted way of tribilist thinking this is about nationalism and defending your own religion and country. I don't see here Somalians invading Ethiopia but quite the contrary. As for the so-called Transitional Government, history will judge them and for a minute if we just assume the UIC allows them to run things in the country one wonders if they are going to last one day in any of the regions run by the UIC at the moment.
Nasir
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25 December 2006 at 20:50 It's suprising to see how little people know about what's REALLY happening in Somalia. Remember these two countries have a bad history, going to war in the early 80s over border disputes.
In June, the political situation in Somalia seemed to offer grounds for cautious optimism. The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), backed by considerable popular support, was banishing the warlords and their militias from large swathes of the country (including the capital, Mogadishu). After years of anarchy and chaos, the courts ostensibly presented a model of governance based on a moderate interpretation of sharia law, one that a people hungry for security and order might readily embrace.
In the meantime Washington considered this new group a threat due to the name they chose to go by, claiming this new movement had ties to Al-Qaeda, not knowing that it was a movement started by Somalis fed up with the warlords who ruined their country. The US’s assistant secretary for African affairs, Jendayi Frazer, warned both Ethiopia and Eritrea that they should stay out of the crisis. But in saying that the international community must help the interim government stand on its feet (an interm government backed by Ethiopia and not supported by Somalis), Frazer was also making it clear where the US government’s sympathies lie.
The US in my opinion has made a bad situation in Somalia the worst possible scenario. How can the US back the same warlords who started the war? The same warlords who attacked US soldiers? The same warlords who stole UN food from starving children? All Ethiopia had to say was "HEY the Somalis are terrorists," and everybody would follow suit without LOOKING.
Bashing Muslims has become really popular since 9/11, and Ethiopia had no trouble convincing Washington. I hope the UN and the US realize the mistake they made by not opening peace talks, and allowing Ethiopia to invade Somalia.
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26 December 2006 at 18:50 The African Union. The fire-fighter turned arsonist in Somalia.
Anyone who had a scintilla of doubt that African leaders are the continent’s worst enemies should note the latest comment by the African Union (AU) regarding the intervention in, some say, invasion of the neighbouring Somalia. Its deputy chairman, Patrick Mazimhaka, has backed the Ethiopian action, adding, ominously, "It is up to every country to judge the measure of the threat to its own sovereignty." Tragically, the African Union, set up to stop conflicts across Africa, has just issued a free licence for other African countries to invade their neighbours. The UK and the EU must be prepared for more AU-backed inter-state wars across Africa, which will compound the already unspeakable poverty, diseases and famine. They must also be prepared to receive tens of thousands of refuges that will come over as a direct result.
Sam Akaki
International Envoy to the UK and the European Union
Uganda Forum for democratic Change (FDC)
18B Messaline Avenue, Action, London W3 6JX
Tel: 079 73 77 36 71
Email: envoy.uk.eu@iloru.fsnet.co.uk
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maryamabukar
26 February 2007 at 14:48 Has anyone else realised that anything to do with Islam having great power, the UN "George Bush" is involved. It seems to me that he is scared that Islam may actually overtake the world and defeat the west. Like many of you already mentioned the US and the rest of the world did not care whether Somalians were killing each other or not for the past 16 years. So, why now? The answer is simple, because the west is scared of any kind of rule imposed by Islam and/or Muslims. One more thing, for all you Somalis who believe that it's ok for Ethopia to start a war with Somalia, remember who you are and know that the UIC are just a bunch of Somalians like you and me who want to restore our homeland and bring peace and security after 16 years of tyranny. Big up to Rageh Omaar, you make ALL Muslims and Somalians, young and old proud. May Allah (God) be with the UIC and help them to establish security in our homeland. Amen.
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muna
18 February 2008 at 21:47 I am so proud of rageh omar and i admire him for his great work and the effort he put in this article to highlight the Ethopien invation in our country and the reasons behind it. I hope many somali youngests w'll follow his footsteps and remember there's nothing like home no mater where you grow . may allah pring peace to our home country
muna
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