Diplomatic shock waves from North Korea
Published 16 October 2006
So, whose fault is it anyway? The United States for being too harsh on North Korea, or China for being too soft? Casting blame may sound juvenile at this point, with the un stable leader of an impoverished country apparently wielding a nuclear weapon and Asia on the brink of an arms race, but the answer could signal a major global shift in power.
The case against the US is robustly expressed by the American academic Selig Harrison, who has visited Pyongyang on numerous occasions. He blames the Bush administration for rejecting President Clinton's engagement policy, and for imposing financial sanctions last year just after the North Koreans had signed an agreement to abandon their nuclear programme. Many would say moving against the rogue state was essential because North Korea's words were meaningless, as it had already developed a nuclear weapon. Harrison says, "In North Korean eyes, pressure must be met with pressure to maintain national honour, and, hopefully, to jump-start new bilateral negotiations with Washington."
But in Beijing this past week there has been unprecedented criticism of China's policy towards its erstwhile client state. Only China had leverage with Kim Jong-il, because of the two countries' 60-year-old cold war partnership and the aid China provides, but many say China's leaders squandered their influence.
"The test signified the failure of China's tra ditional North Korean policy," said Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Peking University. "Now China faces the challenge to find policy alternatives." Even some at the Central Party School were critical. "China should adjust its policies, including reconsidering aid," said Zhang Liangui, a North Korea specialist at the think-tank.
In the past, Beijing has feared that a withdrawal of its fuel and food aid would cause the regime in Pyongyang to collapse and hundreds of thousands of hungry North Koreans to hurtle across the border. They have also been loyal to their old cold war ally, balancing American support to South Korea from the Korean war until today. But the leaders in Beijing are angry now, because Kim Jong-il ignored their entreaties not to test his missiles in July and his nuclear weapon this week. China dubs its increasing global power and influence as "peaceful development" - the Chinese do not want the Americans to see them or their allies as any kind of threat. As Kim's long-time protectors, the Chinese feel they have been snubbed, and he may need to be taught a lesson. If the argument goes that way, then China will sign up to harsh sanctions.
But a new dynamic is emerging in the region, which could eventually work against the Americans. The day before the nuclear test, the new Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe, was in Beijing repairing relations with the Chinese government after a five-year rift. The ostensible reason for the freeze had been the visits of the previous prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, to a shrine to Japan's war dead which honours several men who committed war crimes against the Chinese. The Chinese used the issue to flam up nationalism and divert anger from the problems of inequality and corruption at home.
Now China and Japan seem to have decided that these populist, nationalist policies may play well domestically but do not enhance diplomatic stability in the region. Forging a unified policy against North Korea, possibly in concert with South Korea, could concentrate minds. While that policy is likely to be harder than South Korea's "sunshine policy" of engagement with the North, it might diverge from America's black-and-white Axis of Evil approach. For the first time, the major Asian countries might develop a united front without following the US lead.
In the short term, action against North Korea is likely to be a compromise, with some sanctions, but not all the punitive measures the Americans favour. Knowing they have lost much of their influence, the Chinese may feel there is no longer much point in going easy on Pyongyang. But in the long term, this might be the turning point in Asia's power balance.
There has been apocalyptic talk of the Japanese, South Koreans and even the Taiwanese going nuclear in response to the threat of a nuclear-armed North Korea and a potential US military response. Abe, Japan's premier, has been quick to dampen such fears, although he has in the past raised the possibility of his country changing its pacifist constitution and rearming. If that happened, China would undoubtedly also increase its arsenal.
If this crisis is seen as China's failure, then its prestige in the region will suffer and it may feel less able to challenge America in the UN. Its economic and diplomatic power will be diminished. But if Japan and South Korea decide that this crisis was caused by reckless American policy, they might start to favour Chinese-sponsored solutions to regional problems, not only towards North Korea but also Burma.
Experts are still analysing the seismic data from North Korea's nuclear test; the diplomatic shock waves will be felt for years to come.
Lindsey Hilsum is China correspondent for Channel 4 News
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