Observations on portraits

Visitors to David Cameron's office have spotted a portrait of a half-forgotten Victorian statesman on the wall, and the apparition has intrigued thoughtful Tories while giving a clue to the threat Cameron poses to Gordon Brown.

Why, you may ask, does the super-modern former television spin-doctor want the heavily moustachioed features of Randolph Henry Spencer, Lord Churchill, looming over him?

Cameron's critics accuse him of lacking political identity and abandoning principles in a lunge for cheap votes in the centre ground. But this evidence suggests something more historical is afoot, for there are striking parallels between the careers of today's Tory leader and Winston Churchill's father.

With a small band of followers, the 29-year-old Etonian roused the Tories from long years of despondency. He linked up with other independently minded "modernisers" - Sir Henry Drummond-Wolff, Sir John Gorst and the future prime minister Arthur Balfour (forerunners of George Osborne, Ed Vaizey and Michael Gove, perhaps?) - to found a powerful group.

The ambitious upstart swiftly sidelined the old Tory leadership under Sir Stafford Northcote by attacking their support for the current rights of property and their failure to formulate policies that would attract working-class votes. In 1885 he called his doctrine "Tory democracy". The Conservatives ought to embrace rather than oppose popular reforms, he argued, and challenge the claims of the Liberals (read Blairites) to be the champions of the masses.

It worked: the Tories swept back into power under Lord Salisbury later that year and Lord Churchill, just 36, was appointed secretary of state for India. "We trust the people," was his slogan, and it is Cameron's favourite phrase now. Little wonder that Cameron's choice of portraiture has won Tory approval (although ageing Thatcherites fear for their heroine's iconic status).

High Tory right-wingers in the Christian Cornerstone Group, such as John Hayes, say it indicates a move away from the divisive individualism of economic liberals such as Thatcher and her follower Tony Blair.

David Willetts, the shadow education secretary, says Cameron is fashioning a vision of Tory Britain that delivers fairness without state-imposed uniformity. He contrasts this flatteringly with Brown's attempt to put ideological steam back in to Labour's pistons by redefining Britishness.

Will Cameron revive Tory fortunes without a split? Perhaps he will, but meteors do plunge to earth. The brilliant Lord Churchill proved a flop as chancellor. Dismissing decimal points as "those damned dots", he resigned suddenly in 1886 and sank into syphilitic madness.

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