I can now say with some certainty that Hillary Clinton will run for the presidency in 2008 - and my prediction is that she has an excellent chance of winning

Who was having earnest talks the other day with the Afghan president, Hamid Karzai? Who was also in Iraq last month and, even though it was a day when 55 people were killed there, spoke of a "nascent democracy" now "functioning quite well"? Whose public stance on abortion has changed markedly from being staunchly pro-choice? Who is now a hawk on the Senate committee on armed services? Whose recent visit to India was so charismatic that it was called "amazing" by an Indian MP?

Yes, I can now say with some certainty that Hillary Clinton will run for the presidency in 2008 - and my prediction is that she and her husband have an excellent chance of returning to the White House in January 2009, this time as President and Mr Clinton. She is determined to be seen as a political moderate and has already engaged James Carville, the bald-headed southerner who worked his electoral magic for Bill Clinton in 1992. She is working so furiously hard that she collapsed on stage before giving a speech in Buffalo just over a month ago. She has even started denying that she is interested in the presidency - a sure sign from any American politician that he or she is already planning a campaign.

I talked to Mrs Clinton only once during her husband's presidency. It was soon after the collapse of her attempt to reform healthcare in the US, and she seemed to me to be profoundly depressed; her husband was clowning with other people a few feet away, and I felt even then that she despised her allotted role as the good little First Lady, and may even have despised her husband, too. My favourite memory of her is when she regally swept in late, in a blindingly red outfit, to a Christmas midnight communion at Washington National Cathedral, followed two minutes later by her red-faced, lip-biting husband; they had clearly had one of their famous rows.

My meeting with her was before the public humiliations over his infidelities that she was forced to endure, and I suspect that those experiences only increased her determination to seek personal affirmation in a way that would be entirely separate from her husband; indeed, I am told that she made up her mind to run for the New York Senate seat of Daniel Patrick Moynihan during those summer days in 1998 when the world was obsessed with semen stains, cigars, Monica Lewinsky and Paula Jones. Her husband has been paying penance to her ever since, even saying in Tokyo a few days ago that "I think now she's at least as good as I was [as a politician]". They lead largely separate lives, she in Washington and he in New York.

I have to say, though, that I thoroughly agree with Bill Clinton's assessment of his wife. She has always seemed to me to have an altogether greater intellect than his; she has a mastery of detail that is second to none. Contrary to images of her that are constantly fostered by the media, she also has great charm, both with individuals and with audiences. She is phenomenally disciplined and resolute. The campaign of 2008, assuming I am right about her running, will be horrendously ruthless - but I suspect that she is as well equipped as anybody to withstand the dirt that would doubtless be hurled at her with relentless, self-righteous determination.

Six in ten Americans, according to a recent survey, believe that the country is ready for a female president. A third of people in New York State had an unfavourable opinion of Hillary Clinton three years ago; now that figure is down to one-fifth. Fifty-three per cent of them think she should run for the White House. A national Zogby poll among Democratic voters last month found that 32 per cent would support Mrs Clinton as their presidential candidate, compared with 16 per cent for John Kerry and 12 per cent for Al Gore.

Meanwhile, Senator Joe Biden - he of plagiarising-Neil-Kinnock fame - says that Mrs Clinton is "the overwhelming, prohibitive favourite" and adds that she is "the elephant in the room". (Biden may well be a candidate in 2008 himself, but I suspect that in the meantime he is keeping his options open, so that he might be secretary of state in a Hillary Clinton administration - a post he hoped to land under John Kerry.)

There are many obstacles for Hillary Clinton to overcome first, however.

People assign to her a phenomenal amount of baggage, only a small portion of which is justified. The media continually depict her as a polarising figure who is wildly left-wing (because, presumably, she supports un-American things such as healthcare reform); even the centrist and right wings of the Democratic Party obediently accept this consensus wisdom that has been foisted on them, moving firmly towards the blow-dried former senator John Edwards as their preferred candidate as a result. It is assumed by them, and by many in the media, that Mrs Clinton simply cannot win.

But the evidence is to the contrary. A former Republican congressman named Rick Lazio, an amiable enough fellow, ran against her for the New York seat in 2000 and based his campaign solely on the assumption that Mrs Clinton was hugely disliked personally; he even had leaflets printed, in which his message was simply, "I am running against Hillary Rodham Clinton". In a televised debate, he moved directly towards her rostrum to urge her to sign a "freedom from soft money" pact; she moved back, and Republicans thought that Lazio had demonstrated a winning masculine strength that contrasted with her feminine helplessness.

In fact, polls went on to show that voters - and women voters in particular - resented the boorish way in which Lazio had advanced on her. Mrs Clinton held her ground, and easily won the debate. Indeed, I suspect that she could actually land a huge sympathy vote in 2008, from female voters identifying with her sufferings at the hands of a wayward husband; a Gallup poll last month showed that she already has an advantage with women voters.

I suspect that John Kerry, meanwhile - who has been first out of the stalls with an invitation to major donors to meet at his Washington home on 7 March to discuss "the formation of Senator Kerry's political action committee, Keeping America's Promise" - has little or no chance of winning the Democratic nomination against Mrs Clinton.

And her Republican opponent in an election that, lest we forget, is still three years and eight months away? Mrs Clinton went to Iraq last month with a similarly grandstanding Senator John McCain, and I can reveal that he definitely intends to run in 2008; but he will then be 72, and he has had several serious bouts of skin cancer. Bill Frist, majority leader in the Senate, will also stand. The rumour doing the rounds in Washington is that Condoleezza Rice, fresh from her supposed triumphs as secretary of state, will run, too. I have no personal information whether or not this is so, but it is such an absurd notion that it might just be true. These two women fighting it out for the White House: now that would be entertaining.

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