World Affairs
World view - Lindsey Hilsum fills a vacancy in the axis of evil
Published 07 March 2005
There is a vacancy in the axis of evil, and the real threat to Syria therefore comes, not from Lebanon's cedar revolutionaries, but from Jerusalem and Washington
Rose followed by Orange followed by Cedar. That's the American theory of peaceful revolutions - Georgia, then Ukraine and now Lebanon. But it may not be so simple, because this is the Middle East.
In Martyrs' Square, in downtown Beirut, the enthusiasm of the protesters is seductive, as they wave the national flag - the cedar tree on a white background, sandwiched between two red stripes. They hang banners from the Martyrs' Statue, erected to mark the first revolt against the Ottoman Empire during the First World War, still scarred by bullet-holes from the civil war in the 1970s and 1980s. Most of those camping Kiev-style in hastily erected tents are in their twenties, students born in the era of Syrian domination. They watched the Orange Revolution on TV at Christmas and saw how Russia and her clients in Kiev were humiliated. When Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafiq Hariri, was murdered in a car bomb last month, they automatically blamed Syria, and seized the moment.
"We want Syria out of Lebanon. This is our country!" says a girl with long black hair and braces on her teeth. Emboldened by the resignation of the Syrian-backed government last Monday, they say they'll stay in the square until Syria leaves. In Britain, they would be campaigning against tuition fees. In Beirut, they think they can overturn a system of corruption and political patronage which has endured for a generation.
Syria was embedded in Lebanese politics long before it sent troops in 1976. "People talk about withdrawing the 14,000 Syrian soldiers, but who cares?" says a Lebanese friend. "They're not the problem. The issue is interference in our day-to-day business. In every ministry there's a commissar reporting to Damascus." The two countries' intelligence services are interwoven. Some Lebanese politicians now campaigning for Syrian withdrawal previously enjoyed Syrian sponsorship.
The two economies are also linked. After Hariri's murder, Syrian workers fled, fearing the Lebanese would scapegoat them. For now, it's just an inconvenience - suddenly Beirut is bereft of plumbers. But if the farm labourers dare not return in the summer, who will pick the grapes and olives? Who will build the skyscrapers in Beirut, many funded by Hariri's company, Solidere? Lebanon's flourishing economy depends on cheap Syrian labour. Syria's atrophied economic system, where banks scarcely function, no one invests, and all attempts at reform have been blocked by the "old guard", needs Lebanon as an entrepot.
Lebanon has become - as it was in the 1950s and 1960s - the economic hub of the Middle East. As long as Syria benefits, its intelligence officials will not disrupt commerce, but some here worry about the effect of a forced Syrian withdrawal. Few expect civil war to start again, but the odd judiciously placed bomb could make the point. If you're a small country, sandwiched between greater powers, you're tempted to seek the protection of one or other.
Lebanese politicians may opt for a deal . Syrian troops could pull back - as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has suggested - but Syria remain involved. What will the US and Israel do then? There is a vacancy in the axis of evil, Iraq having graduated - in American eyes - to the axis of democracy. Syria is the prime candidate. President Bush frequently singles out Syria as a rogue state. Tony Blair and Jacques Chirac have given up on al-Assad, because he has failed to control advisers and military men appointed by his father (whom he succeeded). Recent videoed confessions of militants captured in Iraq suggest that Syrian intelligence has been helping to fund the insurgency there. Israel is ratcheting up the pressure, summoning European ambassadors to a special meeting to hear the case against Damascus, and blaming Palestinian militants based in the Syrian capital for the nightclub bombing in Tel Aviv last month.
Israel is also campaigning more loudly against Hezbollah - the Syrian-backed militant group based in southern Lebanon - while the US presses European states to place Hezbollah on the terrorist list.
Don't condemn the "cedar revolutionaries" just because the US and Israel are capitalising on their wish for democracy. But don't be naive either about kids who think they can change the world by camping out and listening to rock bands on an improvised podium. They can easily be manipulated.
Despite the certainty of nearly every Lebanese, it is not proven that Syria had a hand in killing Hariri. But it is clear that, while the Lebanese have lost a man who did much to restore peace and prosperity, his death has hurt Syria more. The regime in Damascus has never looked so vulnerable, but Jerusalem and Washington, not the demonstrators in Martyrs' Square, pose the real threat.
Lindsey Hilsum is international editor for Channel 4 News
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