The 2nd Term - Mandelson and Cook would both like to go to Brussels. Trouble is, there's only one job

The rivalry between Blair and Brown will dominate this new Labour government, but it won't be the only one. A new front is likely to be opened in the long-standing battle between Robin Cook and Peter Mandelson for the title of envoy-in-chief to Europe. Both have let it be known that they would be interested in becoming the UK's next European Commissioner. And this time, there is only one job available.

Both Cook and Mandelson are passionate about joining the euro. In his first Cabinet incarnation as Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, in late 1998, Mandelson tried to stretch the government line on the euro, just as Cook did. The trouble was that he could not help straying on to Cook's territory, using his very close contacts with Chancellor Gerhard Schroder's inner circle to try to set the tone for Anglo-German relations, and using his clout with pliant journalists to suggest that he, not the incumbent, was best qualified to represent the UK in the foreign arena. Cook started asking his private office to monitor Mandelson's many appearances at diplomatic functions and his statements in the media.

It was only after Mandelson's second demise this year that Cook felt confident he would stay as Foreign Secretary into a second term. It has been a sensitive issue for him. After all his personal travails, and the difficulties with his foreign policy's "ethical dimension", he felt he needed a stretch of more than one parliament to establish his reputation and see off his critics.

His reappointment by Blair would have come as a relief to Cook, especially as the Prime Minister was, until last year, still toying with the idea of giving the job to his old chum Mandelson. The two constraining factors were what to do with Cook and how Gordon Brown would react to having to deal with a more powerful adversary taking up office next door in King Charles Street.

With its re-election secured, the government, and the country, will now be casting forward to the next great debate - the euro referendum campaign. The timing would suggest the denouement of the currency saga in 2003, with entry the following year. This coincides with the period when a decision will be taken about our new commissioner.

Next time around, thanks to institutional reforms agreed at last December's Nice summit, the big countries will have only one representative on the new commission that will come into being in January 2005. Neil Kinnock will have served two terms, so his time will be up, while Chris Patten has let it be known that even though he has served only one term, he wants to move on. Having two commissioners has allowed recent British prime ministers to preserve a semblance of political balance, with one Conservative and one Labour member. It will be more difficult this time, so will Blair settle for someone in the middle like, say, Paddy Ashdown? Or might he be tempted to broaden the big tent, to bring in one of the big Tory pro-euro beasts such as Kenneth Clarke or Michael Heseltine?

The shortest odds in Blair's inner circle are with Mandelson and Cook.

Cook has not completely given up on becoming Scotland's next First Minister, the job he wanted back in 1997 but was prevented from seeking by Blair. However, with the youthful Henry McLeish ensconced, this no longer seems a runner.

Blair, while happy with Cook's current performance (he is now seen as a safe pair of hands), will desperately need room for manoeuvre at the top of government. With Brown at the Treasury, his hands are tied, yet he will need to reward with promotion the up-and-coming ministers who perform well - certainly by midway through the new parliament. One option would be to create Lord Cook of Livingston, with special responsibility for dealing with constitutional changes (if they ever come about). Or Blair could find him an international institution - Brown once quipped that Cook's talents might be best used as Britain's special envoy to East Timor.

Among officials in Brussels, the names of Mandelson and Cook (in that order) are doing the rounds. Under the new rules, the European Parliament will play a bigger role in ratifying nominations and the president of the Commission will have a bigger say in who is appointed. "Neither would encounter any problems," says one diplomat. "They're both well known and respected. The only thing we're trying to prevent is for the commission to become the resting ground for washed-up politicians with nothing to say."

With these two candidates, that should be the least of the commission's worries.

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