If you think this election campaign is dull, that is because election campaigns usually are. The idea that politicians of the past held the nation in thrall with Socratic dialogues on the great issues of the day is false. The real dramas of politics - and the real turning points in the affairs of the nation - take place not during general elections, but between them. It was in the mid-1970s, while a Labour government was in office, that British social democracy collapsed. It was in 1990, while the Conservatives were in office, that the seemingly unstoppable progress of neoliberalism came to an abrupt halt with the departure of Margaret Thatcher. And almost for sure, at some stage in Labour's second term of office (which now seems as certain as tomorrow morning's sunrise), there will come a moment that illuminates what remains opaque even after seven years: the precise direction in which new Labour is taking the country.

There will be blood, tears and passion. Quite possibly, Tony Blair will be forced out of office. The second term will be all the more dramatic because the unresolved tensions within new Labour have been so long repressed. The managerialist approach of the first term became a matter of both principle and tactics. Even those who questioned the Blairite view that, in a post-ideological age, all that matters is "what works" were forced to accept that, given its record, Labour needed to prove simple competence. All aspirations - whether of the old Labour or Third Way variety - could be put on hold until the party reached the sunlit uplands of the second term. Then the money could pour into transport, schools, the NHS and all the other good causes that had so long been neglected. Alternatively, the public sector unions and professional bodies, with their restrictive practices, could be bludgeoned into submission.

But if Labour achieves a second landslide, the excuses will run out. No doubt Mr Blair will try to pull his "we were elected as new Labour and will govern as new Labour" trick again, but it won't wash. Labour's manifesto - 44 pages of close type - allows as much room for conflicting interpretation as the Bible. Take one of the central questions, which has been explored in these pages by Professor David Marquand. Does new Labour represent the left's dirigiste tradition, favouring the use of central power to impose universal justice and equality? Or does it come from the more liberal, anarchic wing, favouring the dispersal of power in order to enhance democratic involvement? Here, the strains show within a few lines of each other, as, in the NHS section, the heading "Power devolved" jostles with promises of more national standards and targets and more direction of local health authorities. The questions pile up. Is Labour committed to comprehensive education or is its long-term aim to reintroduce selection? Has it abandoned any intention to restrain car use? Is it committed to the universal state pension? Does it see any limits on the use of the private sector to run public services? Does it intend, as Mr Blair once said, to bring health spending up to average European levels? Is it prepared to raise taxes if necessary to fulfil its ambitions for public services?

For the past four years, the left has rightly given Labour the benefit of the doubt; after all, such questions can be answered with complete certainty when it comes to the Tories. And if Labour has become the party of business, commanding a majority among the middle classes, these should be matters for celebration, not despair: the faith of social democracy was always that its arguments could ultimately convince all classes of society. But Labour must slowly pull business and the professional classes towards the values of the left, not allow them to pull it in the opposite direction. Labour's unity, so firm for so long, is in reality fragile.

It could well be blown apart by Europe, a subject on which the views, not just of new Labour in general, but of almost every individual minister, remain utterly obscure. That issue has been the Tories' nemesis, because it revealed a fault-line that had lain below the surface of Toryism for decades: whether it was a party of nation or of capital. The left tends to a pro-EU position because it admires the strong traditions of social welfare on the Continent, and because it sees Brussels as a kind of super-regulatory authority that could restrain multinationals. What it does not always understand is that the single currency is likely to erode welfare, since it puts so much power in the hands of central bankers, rather than elected politicians. Nor does it understand that the European Commission, being remote from the people, is far more vulnerable to the lobbying of big capital than any national government. These drawbacks could become more apparent as the decision on a single currency approaches, thus exposing some of the underlying divisions in the Labour Party.

But what seems far more likely to upset Labour's second term is a recession. That is the true test of any government - the moment when it is forced to reveal its true values and true priorities. Labour's social security policies are based almost entirely on the buoyancy of the labour market: "Employment," its manifesto states, "is the basis of affordable welfare." We have very little idea of how it would behave if large numbers of people were suddenly thrown on to the dole. Nor do we have much idea of how it would cope if the stream of tax revenues needed to sustain the long-promised public sector investment were to dry up.

There are other possibilities: a major confrontation with the public sector unions if the privatisation plans go ahead; a mass deportation of refugees; a terrorist offensive that provokes attacks on civil liberties. It is impossible to predict how a crisis might come about. But between now and 2006, the future of the Labour Party will be settled more decisively than at any time since the 1930s. Expect resignations, defections, plots against the leadership. Go to sleep now, by all means. You will be woken up sooner than you think.

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