Politics
Laughing all the way to No 10?
Published 05 February 2001
Brown has come out of the Mandelson affair smelling of roses. But if he ever gets to the top his old Labour admirers may be in for a shock
From the recruitment column in the Times: "Vacancy: Prime Minister's Best Friend. Qualities required: 100 per cent loyalty, enthusiasm for euro, intellectual ballast (to counterbalance Gordon Brown), fondness for small furry creatures (dogs and Lib Dems). Prospects: uncertain. Remuneration: adequate, but absolutely no top-ups from sleazy businessmen allowed. Free weekends at Chequers thrown in." So just who is going for this vacancy?
The truth is that Peter Mandelson's departure has left a gaping hole in the Prime Minister's life, if not his heart. It is true that politics abhors a vacuum but, although Mandelson was just one man among many, the qualities he brought to Downing Street cannot be found in one other person: he or she simply doesn't exist.
In the immediate future, Tony Blair is likely to fall back on the heavy hitters of the Cabinet, such as Jack Straw, who both benefits from Mandelson's exit and helped despatch him, and the increasingly influential David Blunkett. But although both enjoy a good, workable relationship with Blair, they're never going to get much closer. If the personal chemistry was really there it would have been obvious by now. There's also a chance for some of the next generation of Blairites - Alan Milburn, Alistair Darling, Stephen Byers and Geoff Hoon - to prove their worth. Any one of them could become Blair's new best friend but, for all their undoubted talents and competence, they still lack anything like the force of personality that Mandelson had.
All of which leaves Blair's old best friend, the Chancellor. Yes, despite appearances to the contrary, Brown is still there, quietly at the centre of things. He has apparently been ignoring the shell-shock that has undermined Downing Street over the past week, and is getting on with what he does so well: running the economy.
The questions that still obsess Westminster are whether Brown and Blair can repair their damaged relationship now that the third party in the triangle has gone; and, if so, will the balance of power within that relationship have changed? The answer is "yes" to the first question, and "a lot" to the second.
While Brown and Blair will never regain the bond of trust they shared before Blair "ratted" on Brown and seized the leadership for himself, it is clear that Brown blamed Mandelson far more than he blamed Blair for the apparent treachery. With Mandelson out of the way, senior figures in Downing Street believe a huge amount of poison, which was constantly dripped to the press, will dry up. What's more, there's no way that Brown can be blamed for this departure. His hands were nowhere near the scene when Peter Mandelson was summarily despatched.
Alastair Campbell, meanwhile, though a Blairite in his personal job loyalty, is much more of a traditional Labour supporter than Mandelson ever was, always urging caution on "the project" with the Lib Dems, more sceptical about Europe and passionately committed to comprehensive education. Personal friendships apart, Campbell won't be too upset about the policy implications of Mandelson's going. He'll have his work cut out safeguarding his own position: he has, for the first time, been the butt of much criticism from Labour MPs. Campbell's big mistake was to send ministers a note in the wake of Mandelson's resignation ordering them to focus on "the issues", such as education and law and order, in any weekend interviews - only to break his own rules with his brutal Sunday lobby briefing.
Labour MPs are already heaving great sighs of relief that Brown will be left to run the election campaign alone, without the combustible presence of Mandelson. One senior backbencher confided that he suspected the artificial truce between the two men would not have held for the four weeks of the campaign. Two sets of predictions about the effect of the Mandelson departure seem safe. First, relationships are going to be easier; second, the tone or style of the government will change. I have argued here before that the decent, underlying provincialism of the Blair government was hidden by the flash parties and luvvy culture of the first 18 months, to its continuing harm. As time goes on, though, this decent, hardworking ordinariness is coming more to the fore.
The ministers who now have a strong influence in government - in particular those mentioned as candidates for Blair's best friend at the top of this article - are all much more politically traditional than Peter Mandelson. It's goodbye to champagne socialists and avocado dip - can you even imagine Straw, Blunkett or Hoon in an Armani suit?
There are two obvious and glaring exceptions, milords Falconer and Irvine. Neither of them can be described as provincial or traditionally Labour, and they share Mandelson's love of good living. Both are still enormously influential: privately Mandelson's friends allege that Irvine played a far bigger part in his downfall than has yet become apparent. He was consulted at the crucial moment and was blunt in his advice. It should not be forgotten that Irvine was John Smith's closest friend and that Smith exiled Mandelson and always loathed him. And Irvine's protege, Geoff Hoon (promoted to the Cabinet after he worked under Irvine in the Lord Chancellor's office), was the first to dance publicly on Mandelson's grave, with the suggestion that he could usefully "knock on doors and deliver a few leaflets" come the election campaign.
Irvine, so long as he stays out of future controversies, will remain a mentor to the Prime Minister, but Falconer is a closer personal friend. He is a big gainer in personal terms - although he always praised Mandelson privately. He's hugely effective internally, but, like Irvine, is not a big ideological player or external force.
The vacuum, then, will be partly filled by less colourful ministers in public and, in private, by Irvine and Falconer. This inevitably leaves the Chancellor as the one towering intellectual presence in the Cabinet, untouched by the recent troubles and waiting in the wings should Tony Blair, as some predict, decide that political leadership is a bleaker game than he'd bargained on and call it a day midway through the second term.
What effect will the Brown ascendancy have? It is what the Conservatives are banking on for their long-term revival. "Ah," they cry. "Great news. Brown in charge. A return to socialism - high taxation - the big state. No more bending to the Daily Mail and Middle England. We hated Mandy but he knew how to scupper us - good news all round."
The truth is that Gordon Brown is both much more of a moderniser and much more radical than his critics - and, indeed, some of his most fervent supporters - have spotted. If we're looking for the architects of new Labour, let's not overlook Brown's contribution. He, along with Blair, provided the original ideological ballast; he laid the foundations. In comparison, Mandelson was just pretty good at the decorative trimmings.
Since Labour has been in power, the story presented by the Tory press has been that a high-spending, redistributionist Chancellor had the brakes put on his plans for the first two years by the forces of conservatism within the government, and has only gradually been able to secure the release of more public money for essential services, such as health and education. This is absolute rubbish. Who was responsible for insisting that Labour should stick to the Tories' spending plans for the first two years? Brown. Who do ministers complain holds the tightest purse strings in the land? Brown.
Never forget that Gordon Brown is a thinker. He has spent a good deal of time over the last year developing his idea for a "civic society", going back to Magna Carta, through Alexis de Tocqueville's thoughts on 19th-century America, through the Scottish enlightenment to his own childhood in Kirkcaldy, Scotland. He spoke in a lecture last summer of recreating a "civic society". Listen to his words: "To solve great social problems, the state of the last century had to take power from great vested interests and do so on behalf of the people. Now, to solve equally pressing social problems, the state in this century will have, as a vested interest itself, to give power away and give power to the people." These are not the words of a "big state" man. Brown's thinking now is enthused by themes such as responsibility, devolving power, encouraging voluntary work. In the past week, the guru of compassionate conservatism, James Q Wilson, has been into No 11 Downing Street to discuss his ideas.
The Mandelson saga is not over yet. He will be back - not in government, but as a presence in the political debate. He will fight to clear his name. His side of the story may still damage people left in government, as his friend Robert Harris has warned. His departure marked a decisive moment in the story of the Blair government, when a more provincial but also more austere and traditionalist style finally replaced the swanky early years. It will also prove a moment of truth for Brown.
The Chancellor cannot hide behind the caricature of Blair and Mandelson as the Middle England sell-out club while he plays the voice of Scottish and northern traditionalism. His real views on the euro, the future of the state and a modern economy now come under the spotlight. They will neither horrify the right-wing press, nor comfort Labour traditionalists as much as both assume.
Brown is a big man with big shoulders. Now they have to take more of the burden and the credit for the truth about new Labour. One day, that truth may take him to No 10 Downing Street. The question we'll all be asking then will be: who is Gordon Brown's best friend?
Jackie Ashley is the NS political editor
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