Clive Soley: 1-2
Tony Lloyd: 10-1
Andrew Mackinlay: 20-1
Frank Dobson 25-1
The race to be chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party is on again. Many back-bench Labour MPs are unhappy with the incumbent, Clive Soley, who voted and campaigned for a Tory as Speaker. He is seen as a Blair stooge who doesn't represent back-bench opinion.
William Hill was reluctant to offer odds on this one, despite its willingness to run a book on the Speaker's race. While it did lose a little by giving early long odds on Michael Martin, the publicity generated for the company more than made up for that. The cost of a similar amount of advertising would run into tens of thousands of pounds, and its chief spin-doctor, Graham Sharp, deserves a large bonus.
The indignation of the Tories over Labour MPs having a punt on the race had more to do with them losing than having any real problem with MPs betting. My spies in the bookies tell me that Conservative MPs bet just as much as Labour members, but they keep quiet when they win - especially those who backed Labour to win the 1997 election.
I make Soley odds-on for the PLP chair because the vote involves all Labour MPs, and the "payroll" vote of more than 100 MPs is guaranteed because he is the Blair candidate. Without this, he would definitely be in trouble, and it has led many backbenchers to argue that they shouldn't be allowed to vote. However, the other reason he will probably win is that there is no united opposition candidate. Andrew Mackinlay, the back-bench maverick, doesn't have broad enough support to defeat Soley, nor has Tony Lloyd. I did hear a rumour last week that Frank Dobson was thinking of running, and if he did, his odds would shorten considerably. Dobson would certainly make an excellent MPs' shop steward.
