Is Conrad Black retiring from the battlefield?

These are gloomy times indeed for Mohamed Fayed. Despite his vigorous pursuit of both British nationality and ownership of a national newspaper, it was reported last weekend that the Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, has now pronounced: "Not only will he never get a passport, he will never get a newspaper."

But before we shed a tear for Al Fayed, let us reflect on where that leaves those possibly contemplating the sale of some of our most illustrious titles. Should Lord Hollick decide to unburden himself of the once great but now increasingly troublesome Expresses after he has done his duty by new Labour at the forthcoming general election, he will need to look in directions other than Harrods for a likely buyer.

While at the Telegraph . . . Do I hear a sharp intake of breath from those who believe that this bastion of British right-wing opinion is held securely in the hands of the Canadian Conrad Black? Allow me to continue. While at the Telegraph, Black must be pondering the removal of a major player from the proprietorial big game as he surveys all around him with diminishing ardour.

It cannot have escaped the notice of press aficionados that Black has divested himself of many of the Canadian publishing properties that made him, until relatively recently, the third-largest newspaper owner in the world. The Daily Telegraph and its Sunday sister, plus the Spectator, now dominate a considerably shrunken group. Black still has a piece of the National Post, the Canadian title he launched out of Toronto, and still owns the Chicago Sun-Times and Jerusalem Post (for now), but his powerful arms do not stretch as far as they did - they once embraced 43 per cent of Canadian newspaper readers.

If sources at the Telegraph are to be believed, he sold a whole cluster of papers to raise money. I do not know how much Black's companies are in debt, but you can bet it amounts to more than the average family mortgage, and the servicing of large-scale borrowing is a costly affair.

But what of the Telegraph papers, the flagship titles of which, he told me two years ago, he was "very proud"? Journalistically, I believe they are very sound, and the changes that have evolved at the daily under the direction of the current editor, Charles Moore, have improved it immensely, with the recent subtle redesign adding a polish that previously seemed elusive. Circulations, however, continue to drift downward; and, although the subscription scheme has been an undoubted success in slowing decline, it has been an expensive exercise. Black confirmed to me that the Telegraph's struggle with the Times required deep pockets, but added: "Yes, wars are expensive, and yet, as I remember General Eisenhower saying, the cost of victory may be high, but the price of defeat is everything."

Is it possible, then, that Black is contemplating an honourable personal withdrawal from the battlefield? Those deep pockets may not yet have been emptied, but the demands on them are still considerable. What's more, there are no signs that the Canadian government will rescind its block on the peerage that was to be offered him. Black's disenchantment with Britain could be the deciding factor if he does decide to concentrate his energies elsewhere.

There are those at Canary Wharf who feel this is so. "The truth is that Conrad thinks Britain is a bit of a one-horse country," I was told. "He is an important figure here and is welcome at the Prime Minister's door, but it is at the door of the White House that he really wants to be."

With the New York Daily News possibly open to offers - well, it usually is - Black may be tempted to see himself more as a William Randolph Hearst than a Lord Beaverbrook. He would, it is suggested, accept a bid of £1bn for the Telegraph group - a recent cost-cutting exercise that turned off the air conditioning and restricted the use of motorcycle messengers has made it a leaner and more purchaser-friendly property.

Who can muster that sort of money? Lord Rothermere, at mega-rich Associated, has, I believe, indicated that he would like to buy the Spectator, but that is like wanting the tasty filling, rather than the whole enchilada.

So, although Robin Cook's view may cheer those at the Telegraph and Express newspapers who believe that the devils you know are better than the Old Nick of Knightsbridge, it may well have done nothing to help the long-term plans of their bosses.

Far be it from me to intrude on the private grief of our beleaguered Prime Minister, but has Tony Blair been monitoring the recent writings of the Sun's political editor, Trevor Kavanagh? One of the most astute operators in political journalism, Kavanagh is also the barometer of the climate in Wapping, where the warmth or otherwise felt by his paper towards the government is concerned.

It was not the Sun wot won it for new Labour in 1997, but its support was and is considered invaluable by Downing Street. Now, suddenly, Kavanagh's enthusiasm for the government has become muted to the point of laryngitis, even for Tuesday's conference speech. The barometer has fallen with a clunk.

The word at Wapping is that Kavanagh's disillusionment could be the prelude to his paper - with its proprietor's permission, needless to say - opting not to support the government at next year's general election. If so and, heaven forfend, new Labour were to lose, it would be the Sun wot dun it.