Sir Alan Haselhurst: evens
Menzies Campbell: 5-2
George Young: 5-1
Gwyneth Dunwoody: 6-1
Alan Beith: 7-1
Dennis Skinner: 200-1
(Source William Hill)
When we last looked at these odds in April, I confess that I never seriously considered that Betty Boothroyd would announce "time's up" so early in this parliament. A punt then would have given you far better odds than now. What hasn't changed is that the Tory Sir Alan Haselhurst remains the favourite. The bookies clearly think that the convention of the post going to the opposition will prevail, although his odds have drifted from odds on to evens in the past week.
Although nobody outside the Commons has ever heard of Haselhurst, he seems confident that the job will be his. Others are not so sure. Many Labour MPs just can't bring themselves to vote for a Tory and are backing Menzies Campbell, as are the punters. Campbell's odds have tumbled from 12-1 to 5-2. In a desperate attempt to stop Ming, some Tories are saying that we can't have a Scot in charge of the Commons - but that has just made Labour MPs more likely to vote for him.
Top of the Labour hopefuls is Gwyneth Dunwoody. She has seen her odds slashed from 12-1 to 6-1, and has not given up hope of moving into the fine apartments under Big Ben. She thinks that, having upset Tony Blair with her outspoken remarks, this will help win Labour votes. But the word in the Lobby is that she is even less popular among the backbenchers than Blair himself.
A number of outsiders have thrown their hats into the ring, including the Lib Dem Alan Beith, and the bookies have given odds to some who have no intention of standing, such as Dennis Skinner.
I don't like backing favourites, so my pony is on Menzies Campbell.
