Imagine the frustrations of being an ambitious politician trapped inside a political party: you know what is needed to win a general election, but the wretched party seems hell-bent on losing one; you know what would be the best policy on Europe, but the party will have none of it; you know it is important to work closely with other parties, but most of your own party will not let you; you "win" an internal election, but the bloody party has rigged the ballot in order that you are the loser. Damn parties, blast parties. Stop the bus, I want to get off.
In London, buses are stationary most of the time, so this would be the least of Ken Livingstone's problems. But he is not the only leading politician to agonise over tribal affiliations. The pro-European Tories have been depressed by their party for at least a decade. Paddy Ashdown felt frustrated by his, even though he led it.
Tony Blair has probably cursed his party for decades. On election night in 1983, 1987 and 1992, he must have had his doubts. "What am I doing this for? I could have been a successful lawyer. Instead, I am heading back to Westminster for late nights, to vote against Conservative policies, some of which I am starting to believe in. Damn the party!"
Even now, in the sunnier days of power, Blair is not a great party man. He views some Labour activists in the same way as David Owen looked upon the Liberals in the 1980s. The word "contempt" springs to mind, but it is not strong enough. On the other hand, Blair likes the Liberal Democrats - or some of them. He grew up acutely aware of the madness of two parties on the centre-left splitting the anti-Tory vote. But his wretched party will not let him follow the logic of this assessment, which would be to bind the Lib Dems more closely to Labour.
Blair still retains more of an open mind on relations with the Lib Dems than is often appreciated, especially now that Charles Kennedy has settled down after a nervy start. Blair dined with Lord (Roy) Jenkins recently. If he were not interested in Jenkins's party - or the euro - he would have kept well clear.
Is Blair still genuinely interested in closer ties with the Lib Dems, or is he playing pre-election games? We will know when he announces whether a referendum on electoral reform will be held in the second term. My hunch is that he will make such a commitment.
Even so, it is Blair's perceived control-freakery, rather than his interest in the Lib Dems, that has made political parties unfashionable. "Stick Two Fingers Up At Millbank, Ken!" seems to be the cry in most newspapers. Columns crop up all over the place in which the decline of the party is predicted and celebrated. This is all rather familiar. When I joined the New Statesman just before the last election, we spent most weeks designing political maps which depicted a dramatic realignment in British politics. The sales soared and Paddy Ashdown liked us enormously. The slight problem was that we were wrong.
Political parties are robust beasts. There has been no formal division of any significance, for example, in the Tory party. Indeed, it is probably more united over the euro than Labour is - although it is united over the wrong policy.
There's an interesting question. Is it better to be united over a silly policy or divided over the right one? Hague has opted for unity. If Michael Portillo succeeds him, I bet he will take a deep breath, cause a huge row, and move his party back to the centre ground. He has made a striking start as shadow chancellor, dropping unpopular policies under the cloak of pragmatism. He was at it again the other day on the BBC, suggesting that he was highly pragmatic over the euro as well. This is not just a change in the Portillo tone, but in the substance as well. Since joining the shadow cabinet, everything Portillo has said and done has been with an eye on the centre ground. Instead of there being a proliferation of new parties, it is quite possible that two big parties will be battling it out in the centre after the next election, or to put it more precisely, after the referendum on the euro.
Such a development would vindicate the decision of the moderate Tories to fight their corner from within. Similarly, Blair, Brown and co have been rewarded for their loyal patience with a landslide that politicians dream about. I doubt if the introduction of mayors will alter one of the few laws of British politics: it is more fruitful to stay in a party than to leave it.
Mayors, including the one in London, will need to work with the majority party in the London Assembly. So much better, surely, if the mayor happened to belong to that party. There is no reason why a mayor cannot be a distinctive personality and a member of a party, even one supposedly dominated by control freaks.
By the time you read this, it is possible taht Livingstone will have announced his decision on whether or not to run as an independent. He will have made an error if he opts for this, even if his frustration is understandable. This is not a great ideological battle. Livingstone is not an especially ideological politician. He wants a job, to do something fulfilling before he reaches 60.
A senior Labour source tells me that Livingstone was offered a ministerial job a few years ago. Livingstone has told me - on the record, repeatedly - that he never was and that he would have leapt at the chance. He has also always insisted that he would abide by collective responsibility.
In the current web of manoeuvring and intrigue, I have no idea who is telling the truth. That's political parties for you. At times, they are a cauldron of hate, as Michael Meacher rather uncharacteristically put it to me a few years ago. If the saintly Meacher can talk in such terms, you can see what a pain these parties are. Still, being outside the cauldron is a much bigger pain, as Ken will discover.
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