Most of what you read about the cabinet reshuffle is guesswork. The reports, part of the summer political ritual, are based on gossip between journalists, ministerial advisers and nervy ministers, none of whom knows for sure what will happen. Last year, a lot of us had much fun explaining "authoritatively" why Peter Mandelson would be made cabinet enforcer (he was not) and why the moment had come for Alan Milburn (it had not).
Even so, dare I say it, this summer is slightly different. There are straws in the wind, matters that need dealing with. To start with the obvious: Mo Mowlam will leave Northern Ireland. The Unionists have been wary of her for some time - and now the relationship has broken down. She told me in an interview soon after the election that Unionists had problems coping with her tactile style. ("They probably think I hug terrorists. Well, let me tell you I have never knowingly hugged a terrorist in my life.") After years of arduous and sometimes fruitful labour, in government and opposition (when she and Blair put in much unpublicised preparatory work), it is time for her to move on.
Where will Mo go? Some reports suggest that she will get the health portfolio while poor old Frank Dobson will be "rewarded" for his ministerial efforts with the mayoralty of London. But that is where the reality of reshuffles becomes infinitely more complicated than the speculative fun and games in the media. For sure, Downing Street would like Dobson to stand in London, but the ultimate prize, the job itself, is not in Blair's gift. Those damned party members and voters get in the way. Blair can say only, "Frank, thanks for all you've done. I would now like you to leave the cabinet, get on the shortlist as a possible Labour candidate for mayor - where you may or may not face Ken Livingstone - get the Labour nomination and then beat the Tories in the actual election next summer, when our core vote may or may not be in one of its stroppy moods."
Blair would have to "sack" Dobson and place him on the back benches for a few months, as Labour has decided to delay the internal contest for its mayoral candidate until the party conference is safely out of the way. To move from Health Secretary to "potential candidate" would prove something of a humiliation. Anyway, everyone knows by now that Dobson does not want the job. The awkwardness of the timing and the reluctance of the minister will only add to the paranoia about control-freakery, at a time when the government should be getting credit for giving power away.
The Dobson conundrum points to an interesting political law. Cabinet reshuffles do not work when their primary purpose is Machiavellian. They tend to rebound on the scheming architect. The best ones arise when a PM and his team ask a straightforward question: who is the best person for each job?
Most of the time, prime ministers have other criteria in mind. Harold Wilson was obsessed with balancing left with right, Margaret Thatcher with seeing off her "wets", John Major with ensuring the Eurosceptics and Europhiles were properly represented at the top table. Blair's changes last year provided a rare example of the alternative approach. Margaret Jay has proved politically sharp in the Lords. Alistair Darling navigates with some success the complexities of welfare reform, which Labour had greatly underestimated in opposition. Peter Mandelson (remember him?) adapted to a departmental brief pretty well.
Blair still enjoys a strong enough position to make sensible changes, rather than devious ones, so what should they be? Mowlam, who has never knowingly hugged a terrorist, could hug a few core voters as party chairwoman, as well as being an effective secretary of state for the Today programme in times of crisis. I can hear her now: "Morning, Jim. I'm going to be quite honest with you. None of us is cheering that we lost our deposit in the by-election. What I am saying is a lot of good can come from it if we learn the right lessons, which I know we will."
If Dobson were booted into temporary outer darkness, she could be given health, allowing Ian McCartney to become party chairman (although McCartney would make a rather good health secretary). By the way, read McCartney's defence of Margaret Beckett on page 18. There are strong forces backing her to stay in the cabinet.
Paul Murphy - a Welsh MP and currently the junior minister in Belfast - should get Northern Ireland, allowing Peter Hain to become Welsh secretary and therefore move up to the cabinet. In my view, Hain deserves it for carrying out some tough deeds in Wales and being one of the more politically creative minds on the front bench. But opinion in the upper echelons of the party is divided over whether he will be punished for telling me (NS, 7 June), prophetically as it turned out, that the government was being "gratuitously offensive" to the core vote.
I would also put a transport secretary in the cabinet. Astutely, William Hague created last month a separate transport brief with shadow cabinet status. Votes are at stake over transport, especially in London and the South-east.
What will happen? Jack Cunningham seems out of favour, though at one time he was spoken of as a possible Northern Ireland Secretary. I suspect he will have more time to spend with his fishing-rods after a year in an ill-defined job. Beckett will stay in the cabinet. Mandelson will not return this summer, although he will play a central role in preparing for next year's elections. Changes will be much more wide-ranging at the junior level.
But then again, as I warned you at the beginning, no one knows for sure - not even Tony Blair.
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