After the undemocratic farce that passed for a European Parliament election, MPs think it is downhill all the way to the general election in the early summer of 2001. And since not even Alan Duncan, William Hague's previous Amanda Platell, believes that the Conservatives can win, immediate attention focuses on cabinet reshuffles, phantom and real.
Easily more interesting, if less relevant, is the Tory exercise in Titanic deckchairs. With Michael Howard, Norman Fowler and Gillian Shephard all declared departers, a beleaguered Hague is looking at a shortfall of talent. So don't be surprised if Michael Ancram, the circumferential Scottish earl, is winkled out of his role as party chairman to become shadow foreign secretary. And Ann Widdecombe, the famous virgin, could cease tormenting Frank Dobson and become shadow home secretary. Liam Fox, another Scot who puts himself about a bit, should also get preferment.
Tony Blair's task is simpler. He no longer needs to get rid of Robin Cook, because he has proved more warlike than the soldiers, and change at the Treasury and Home Office is unthinkable. So it will be middle-ranking ministers who get moved around.
Mo Mowlam is desperate to come back from Belfast, and there is some muttering about "Steve" Byers, who is thought not to have cut the mustard at Trade and Industry - a department that should have been absorbed into the Treasury long ago.
Most amazing suggestion of the week: that Jamie Shea, Nato's answer to Milo Minderbender, should be drafted as a Labour-supported Martin Bell candidate for the Eddisbury by-election later in the year, following the appointment of the Tory MP Sir Alastair Goodlad to the governorship of Australia. The only problem is that Alastair Campbell can't stand the sight of Shea, whom he regards as a public relations liability. The voters of rural Cheshire may not be too impressed, either.
Speaking of Ali, there is speculation that Campbell is discreetly co-operating with the Express's Peter Oborne, the old Tory author who is writing his biography. The other putative Campbell biographers - Tom Condon, the former head of information at the GMB, and Eric Jacobs, biographer of Kingsley Amis - are getting the Mandy treatment. Officially they are being frozen out, but I can assure Comrade Campbell that some of his ministers are co-operating enthusiastically. I say "his", because everyone knows that Alastair decides who should do what: Tony Blair doesn't know any MPs, whereas his press honcho actually once worked (as a political reporter) at Westminster.
During the recess, I did a "turn" at Rotherham for the summer social of three constituency Labour parties. I got most laughter for the joke about the town's first (and perhaps only) Conservative mayor, elected by a Labour council in 1941. When a visitor asked why they had chosen a Tory, a wizened veteran offered slyly: "We 'eard that Hitler was going to shoot the first citizen of ev'ry town if the Nazi invasion came off." Best applause for mentioning John Smith's legacy: the minimum wage.
Originally Lord Irvine had been suggested instead of me, but there were fears that he might not like the wallpaper in the civic suite. In any event, the Lord Chancellor is making a state visit to Rotherham, at the invitation of the local MP Denis MacShane, to address a solicitors' black-tie dinner at £45 a plate for party funds. This sum is about half the weekly take-home pay for some of those present at the social. One, Craig Mitchell, had just been suspended that day by managers at the town's hospital for refusing to do a job deemed by the staff to be unsafe. It's a different world from the fancy business of government out there, you know.
The writer is chief political commentator for the "Mirror". Lynton Charles returns in August
Post this article to
We want to encourage people to comment on our content and to exchange views with other readers and hope this will be done on a courteous basis. However, if you encounter posts which are offensive please let us know by using the 'report this comment' facility or by emailing comments@newstatesman.co.uk and we will take swift action where necessary.
