In the interests of NS readers, I left my rural retreat in Sussex last week to breathe in the electioneering air of Brighton and Hove. I did not, to be honest, see any election posters or meet many voters. After all, I was meant to be on holiday. But I can report that, as Britain's mini-election campaign began, Labour canvassers in marginal wards were remarkably upbeat. Remember that the game at this stage is always to lower expectations. Yet a very senior councillor, experienced in electioneering, happily announced: "I haven't met a single Conservative voter this morning. Blair is popular, the government's still popular. We are going to keep control."
Was this just a local phenomenon? I made a few phone calls to Labour MPs canvassing in other parts of the country. "It's true. The Lib Dems are doing well, but I think we are witnessing the strange death of Tory England," said one. I stress again: this is not new Labour propaganda. The last thing that any party wants is to make inflated claims. New Labour wants to convince everyone that for the party to lose 2,000 seats to the Conservatives would be something of a triumph. No doubt hundreds of bleepers will shortly vibrate with the message "lower expectations". But for the time being, Labour supporters' hopes are high in what are unquestionably difficult elections.
When political journalists leave London, they almost always get it wrong. Even the late, great Peter Jenkins made the mistake of spending a day in Bury North, known as a key marginal, during the 1992 election campaign and reaching the dramatic conclusion that Labour would win both the seat and the election. It won neither. What is more, the Conservatives have performed better in recent council by-elections than their national poll ratings would suggest. Even so, I make this prediction. Labour will do unusually well for a mid-term mini- election campaign and the Conservatives will not do well enough to give them the momentum they seek with increasing desperation.
The launch of the parties' campaigns shows why the Labour honeymoon continues into what will soon be the second half of this parliament. Quite simply, Tory leaders still fail to understand the success of new Labour in opposition and its continuing success in government. They still believe that new Labour is a triumph of presentation and image over substance. That is why their campaign launch was heralded by a spate of stories about how "the real William Hague" will emerge over the next few weeks. The much-misunderstood leader would be talking to ordinary people about "bread-and-butter" issues. He would not be at the launch of the party's campaign, but out and about in the country, talking about matters that worry voters.
This is all vacuous nonsense. I happen to believe, still, that Hague is an underrated politician who is more rounded and politically astute than his grey image suggests. But he has not understood Tony Blair's success, even as he tries to emulate it. Judging from recent developments, Tory Central Office thinks something along the following lines. Blair distanced himself from his party's vote-losing past; so Hague must tell his colleagues to apologise more for the last government's mistakes. Blair had a good image in opposition; so Hague must be relaunched again and again until he acquires one. Blair had Alastair Campbell, a former Mirror and Today man; so Hague must have Amanda Platell, a former Mirror and Today woman. Blair had few policies; so Hague must have few policies.
The last is the nub of the Tory error. Labour's election manifesto in 1997 was stuffed with policies. Some of them may have been small and incremental, but the presentation, spin and glitz were driven by policy and not the other way round. Indeed, even the tiny changes were celebrated with clever slogans such as "Labour can make a difference".
Just how carefully Labour had thought through its policies is evident from its latest, characteristically slick, mini- manifesto. In the 1997 campaign, talk of public spending was virtually banned. A new Labour government would spend a few pence more here and there, but that would be it. Now, in its "Achievement Card" published for this election, the £40 billion being spent on education and health top the list.
Blair and Gordon Brown had always intended to spend more than they promised at the election and had largely worked out how the money would be raised. (As Michael Meacher blurted out to me shortly before the election: "There are plenty of other taxes apart from income tax.") Now they can proclaim the spending as a vote-winner. The Tories should note that the detailed evolution of the tax-and-spend story relates to careful policy and strategic thinking. Glitzy presentation was the icing on the cake.
Labour's mid-term manifesto is also different in its emphasis on the single currency. The 1997 document was more neutral, stating merely that "any decision about Britain joining the single currency must be determined by a hard-headed assessment of Britain's economic interests". Now the tone is just a little more positive.
Setting out the Treasury's rather vacuous economic conditions for entry to the euro, the manifesto states: "Our intention is clear: Britain should join a successful single currency provided these conditions are met." Again clever politics, flawed in its caution perhaps, but not superficial. Long ago, the leadership embarked on a strategy of moving Britain slowly towards a single currency. Presentation and spin will help, but the direction of the policy has to precede them.
Hague is wasting his time being seen talking to ordinary people until he has decided what he has got to say to them.
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